If you have been following debates over new freeways, you will be familiar with a well-known “fact”, most recently repeated by Premier Gordon Campbell and former premier Mike Harcourt: congestion is costing us $1.5 billion a year in the Lower Mainland. Sorry folks, that number is a hoax.
Congestion here, as in all other cities in the world, is a major problem. It costs us a lot. It is immensely frustrating; it wastes years of people’s lives, and it blocks the flow of vital goods and limits our future as a freight gateway to Asia.
But where does the $1.5 billion estimate come from? I only began to ask this question when I noticed a report from Seattle, prepared by the Puget Sound Regional Council. “Many transportation facilities experience considerable traffic congestion during peak travel periods,” said the report. “Annually, traffic congestion costs the region in excess of $1.5 billion in wasted time and other resources.”
It seemed odd to me that Seattle, with twice our population and one of the worst congestion problems on the continent, comes up with exactly the same cost (not counting for $US) as the Metro Vancouver.
Then, reading about the Denver region in an article called Regional Thinking, in the Sept. 2006 issue of Urban Land Magazine, I came across almost the same number: “The (Denver metropolitan) region has some big issues to address. Traffic congestion was ranked the nation’s third worst, causing an annual loss of $1.4 billion in time and gasoline costs, according to a 2003 report by the Texas Transportation Institute.” How curious that these three metropolitan areas, with widely variable transportation infrastructures, all had virtually the same congestion costs.
Then I read a Conference Board of Canada report that estimated the total cost of congestion across the nine biggest cities in Canada as between $2.3 billion and $3.7 billion a year. Hold that thought while noting Toronto Board of Trade estimates that “$2 billion is lost annually from gridlock in the Greater Toronto area alone,” according to Toronto Mayor David Miller. Taking the outside estimate of $3.7 billion nationwide, that means that with Toronto using up $2 billion (for a region with three times our population), and Metro Vancouver using up $1.5 billion, congestion costs in Canada’s seven other largest cities– including Montreal– add up to only $200. Highly unlikely.
Are we really doing that badly in our region, almost at a par with Toronto? Can we be suffering seven times the congestion costs of the other seven largest cities in Canada combined?
Well, maybe not. I traced one original estimate of our “$1.5 billion” mantra to the Vancouver Board of Trade’s Sounding Board newspaper: Under the heading “Transportation congestion costs hit $1.5 billion”, the January, 2006 article actually said: “Transport Canada has estimated that the cost of congestion in the region already costs residents and businesses between $700 million and $1.2 billion annually, with more recent estimates suggesting that the figure has increased to $1.5 billion.”
It’s almost as though the number was pulled out of the air. Maybe congestion costs everywhere (except Toronto) mysteriously add up to $1.5 billion by some magic estimating by highway planners. So I tuned into Google and searched for “traffic, congestion, costs, $1.5 billion.”
I ran into a roadblock of cities. The Xinhua News Agency, in a November, 2006 article, notes that Beijing Mayor Wang Quishan told the Hong Kong media that his top priority was to “borrow experiences” in mass transit management to alleviate traffic congestion in time for the 2008 Olympics. “A report from the Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences says traffic jams cost the southern city up to 12 billion yuan (US$1.5 billion) a year, about seven per cent of its gross domestic product.”
It’s everywhere. In a 1998 New York Daily News article, we learn that “extra transportation costs, such as overtime paid to drivers stuck in traffic, costs Brooklyn $1.5 billion a year.”
In Chicago, the good news was that transit saves the region, which, according to the Chicago Transit Authority has the second worst traffic congestion in the U.S. “over $1.5 billion in congestion costs”.
But that’s a different way of looking at it. Let’s get back to basics.
No less an authority than the Washington D.C. Road Information Trip Program discovered, according to an October 2004 report, that “Traffic congestion in Virginia costs licenced drivers $1.5 billion annually in delays and wasted fuel.” Note to drivers stuck on the Port Mann Bridge: don’t go to Virginia either.
Or Philadelphia. An October, 1 2003 article in the Philadephia Inquirer (The Traffic Commute? Hey, It Could Be Worse) takes the trouble to spell out the methodology behind the magic $1.5 billion number: “Figured at about $19 an hour for both time and fuel, congestion costs our region $1.5 billion annually.”
And steer clear of Boston. According to the I-95 Corridor Coalition, “the Boston, MA region ranks 10th at an annual congestion cost of over $1.5 billion. The economic cost accrues not only to local residents, but also to long distance travellers and to those moving freight through the region.”
The good news is you can escape this number by flying off to Australia, but not for long. The Southern Australian Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics has estimated the cost of congestion on Adelaide roads in 1995 was $0.8 billion and will grow to $1.5 billion by 2015.
Careful if you rent a car in Sydney. The Department of Environment and Conservation of New South Wales estimates the cost of traffic congestion in that city is between– you guessed it– $1.5 billion and $2.04 billion.
I hope the construction estimates on new highways are measured a little more rigourously.